*This is of course just my conjecture. I do not say that it can’t all be an innocent accumulation of accidents. I am just trying to see if there is maybe another explanation better fitting to the James Bond principle:
“Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action.”Ian Fleming, Goldfinger
The year 2022 may turn out to be one of the most significant years in history. Even though it is not even a full four months old, this year has already changed the world forever.
With Russia invading Ukraine, the West declaring economic war on Russia and the (hopefully) final waves of the Covid-19 pandemic, this is definitely one of the “[…]weeks when decades happen” sort of years.
So, with all these once-in-a-lifetime events happening in just a few short weeks—after two years of wild geopolitical crises—it’s almost no wonder that the public seems to have missed the biggest event of them all:
Quietly, China has started the largest economic attack in recorded history.
While all the mainstream media focussed on the double whammy of Corona and the invasion of Ukraine, China launched the economic equivalent of a nuclear first strike.
Under the guise of Zero-Covid, the Chinese authorities began to systematically mine and torpedo the already weak global supply chains.
First, the Chinese government halted the semiconductor industry because of “power shortages”. A woe that the communist leaders had intentionally provoked, when they declared Bitcoin mining to be illegal, which had been the economic backbone for much of China’s more rural power plants.
“Wait a minute”, you may think, “Chinese government cracking down on Bitcoin is just them wanting control.”
You may be right, but what’s ringing my alarm bells is twofold:
The first part is that the crackdowns came under the pretence of power shortages, but the large scale power shortages and shutdowns of factories only occurred after the miners had left the country.
Secondly, there were many articles popping up about Chinese hydro-power plants going bankrupt soon after the BTC mining ban, which quickly were purged from Google.
Strike one—China shuts down Bitcoin mining, creates severe power shortages (happenstance).
Strike two—China shuts down critical wafer and semiconductor fabs in an already disrupted semiconductor supply chain situation, due to Covid-19. (coincidence)
So far, so bad. And there is more…
One aspect to look into further is the origin of the novel Coronavirus itself. Whether or not the virus leaked from the Wuhan lab or occurred naturally, the Chinese response certainly hints at the CCP having had plans ready on how to turn this thing into an economic and political weapon. (Strike Three—Enemy Action!?!)
While I certainly cannot decidedly tell, if the mounting evidence that there indeed was a cover-up by high-ranking healthcare officials in the US, means China released a virus on purpose, the background on the cover-up—which supposedly was due to the research jointly funded by the USA and China—is more than just a little suspicious in light of how well the pandemic played into China’s cards.
It’s hard to create a better Sun Tzu style move than to lure your enemy to conspire with you and then having him hide the fallout of what is to become your first strike.
Especially if these moves also help you hide the preparations of an all out war, as well as the first skirmishes.
Let us examine how China used Covid-19 against the West:
To do so, we need to go back to early 2020, when videos of people collapsing dead in the streets leaked out of China.
After two years of a global pandemic, we can say with a high degree of certainty that these videos were staged to create panic. Had these been real videos, we would have seen this happening all over the globe. A virus may affect countries differently based on the national demographic and healthcare system, but not with entirely different symptoms.
So, if the CCP staged these videos, what was their goal?
In my opinion, the goal was trifold:
One, they wanted to create fear, to get their own population back in line, which had been getting a bit nervous over Xi’s plans to stay in power indefinitely.
Two, the CCP wanted to create a justification for their crackdowns on their population, so the West would keep quiet.
And finally three, the long-term plans of the CCP had matured to a point, where they felt powerful enough to attack the US of A, but not quite daring enough to do so in the open.
Thus, if they could carefully guide the West to destabilize itself, they could bring their economic troops into position undercover.
And this plan—if it indeed was planned—worked out perfectly. Under the pretence of Corona, stoked with fear from the exaggerated messages out of China, the Western leaders were encouraged to copy China’s response and launch ever more authoritarian counter measures.
No matter if this was all Xi Jinping’s plan, a Klaus Schwab conspiracy or mere happenstance, in its Covid-19 response, the West laid the groundwork for its own economic demise.
The constant mumbo-jumbo of lockdowns, travel restrictions and quarantines, thoroughly scrambled up the delicate global supply chains.
Something Europe and the United States depend on, while China and its allies are largely self-sufficient.
With natural disasters like earthquakes in Japan or human made disasters like a ship blocking one of world’s most important channels (Maybe Strike Four???), the “First World” in later 2021 suddenly became looking more and more like the Soviet Union in 1988. Shelves were barren, borders closed. People were locked in or out of countries, sometimes even their home countries.
Unfortunately for authoritarians worldwide, the Omicron variant of the virus appeared and quickly drove out the other, more lethal variants.
With a virus less deadly now than the flu, it became harder and harder to justify the extensive human rights violations.
So, after a final propaganda push, trying to declare the winter of 21 to 22 a “winter of severe illness and death” for the unvaccinated, almost all countries lifted the restrictions during Q1 of 2022.
This came at a terrible time for China. They had been increasing the pressure on Taiwan for a while, likely hoping to use the global chaos to find some excuse to take over. Which would have given them control over some of the most important semiconductor fabs in the world.
What to do now?
If the CCP waits, fabs in construction around the world would get finished, making both China and Taiwan less critical as semiconductor suppliers. If they move now, they would likely receive a hefty response from the NATO.
“Luckily”, Vladimir Putin came to the rescue and invaded Ukraine. This not only pulled the media attention and wrath to Russia, it also allowed China to shine, simply by not openly declaring support for Russia. Furthermore, it made Russia dependent on China to launder its goods and money.
As a cherry on top, Russia and Ukraine combined are the world’s top suppliers of e.g., Gas, Oil, Grain, and Neon. The last being especially important, since it again affects the crucial semiconductor industry. (Come on, this is definitely another strike!?!)
If all of this wasn’t enough, China decided to still treat the milder Omicron, as if it was the “people dropping dead in the streets” plague they had first portrayed it as. In fact, the recent shutdowns in Shanghai are even more hardcore and influential than what they originally did in Wuhan.
Shanghai is one of the most significant industrial hubs in the entire world and one of the busiest harbours. With the measures taken by the CCP in this region, they can not only again halt semiconductor factories, but also automotive manufacturers and many other industries.
On top of these factory closings, the seemingly random openings and closings of parts of Shanghai, lead to trucks and ships piling up around the metropolis, leaving the thin global supply chains short of containers, staff and other essentials.
This could lead to a supply shock of a very different kind in many industries, again, especially semiconductors.
While many suppliers right now ask their customers to place orders for chips on the entire 2023 demand, some even well into 2024, more and more chip customer’s factories have to stop production. In China due to Covid-19, in Ukraine due to the war and in Europe, due to parts missing from either of the aforementioned countries.
If this chaos continues, automotive Tier 1 and Tier 2 subcontractors, will soon be forced to cancel or delay semiconductor orders. This will lead to a bizarre situation, where we have simultaneously a shortage of chips and chips stacking up in warehouses.
If you think inflation is bad already, wait what this will do to the CPI.
And China is not done yet. They want to lock down more and fight out their Zero Covid fight to the max.
To sum this long article up:
China has found a way to break global supply chains, drive Western economies into a historically unique combination of double-digit inflation and depression. In short, the economic equivalent of nuclear winter.
So, how do we tell, if this was all just a series of unlucky coincidences or an evil master plan?
We will probably never know for sure. But if one or more of the following things happen over the next few years, we can be rather certain:
- China taking control over Taiwan
- China adopting a gold standard (more on this in my upcoming article on hyperinflation)
- More proxy wars breaking out
Great analysis! It really seems like the CCP has a drawer full of nice „coincidences“. And so far they really fulfill the goal to destabilize the West. However what I’m wondering is when/if Chinese common people will become a threat to the CCP? I mean the collapse of the global economy certainly doesn‘t help the Chinese middle class. In particular when house prices collapse further and people lose their hard earned savings… what are your thoughts? What would the CCP do? Encapsulate the Chinese economy? How does this fit with the CCP‘s new Silk Road agenda which is a gigantic supply chain that they are currently destroying?
As I hinted at, I think their Covid-19 response actually serves a double purpose. They want simultaneously to attack the West and control their population. Wouldn’t surprise me if many people disappear on their way to quarantine.